Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf8d2…06ee crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$182 (-3%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$46
14 days−$227
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$5
crypto 44% +$3
sports 3% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -55.6% -59.8% 11% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 19 -31.6% -38.1% 26% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 19 -31.6% -38.1% 26% 0% -12.5%
all 19 -31.6% -38.1% 26% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 0% -12.5%
10% -44.0% 0% -20.9%
15% -49.4% 0% -28.5%
20% -54.4% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$505) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage18d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,315 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $480 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $505 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $496 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $360 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $487 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $540 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $512 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $249 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $540 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up $0 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up $0 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up $0 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down $0 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down $0 6h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $470 6h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $471 33h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $479 34h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $480 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $505 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $482 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $483 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $496 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $482 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $359 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $360 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $360 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $360 12d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $148 13d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $26 13d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $6 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $486 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $487 14d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $483 15d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $484 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $512 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $200 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $249 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records