Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8dc…e391 other 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,581 (-1%) realized −$1,580 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,084per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$29
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,182
politics 38% −$62
sports 6% −$330
economics 3% −$5
world 2% −$17
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -1.7% -11.1% 7% 0% -10.6%
all 127 -2.8% -12.0% 19% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 9% -10.6%
10% -20.4% 9% -19.1%
15% -28.1% 8% -27.0%
20% -35.2% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$806
Realized−$1,580
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,084
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $807 $806 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,811 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5,242 −$6 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $3,067 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $3,897 −$5 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $429 +$1 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $681 +$1 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $3,778 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,296 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,122 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,466 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,921 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,831 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,297 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 17 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $4,742 −$5 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $2,311 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,473 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,356 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,060 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,235 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,364 −$1 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $981 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $269 36m
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $269 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $463 3h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $840 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $841 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $807 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,499 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,502 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,266 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,268 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,519 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,521 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $960 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $961 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,273 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,594 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,597 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,030 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,032 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,607 13d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,610 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,132 16d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $714 16d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $420 16d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 16d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,065 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $805.91 · official $805.91 (match) · 442 history records