Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf8dc…b71a crypto 123 markets active 7d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+3%) realized +$220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate80%98W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$119
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 123 +1.3% -8.4% 80% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 123 +1.3% -8.4% 80% 45% -7.8%
all 123 +1.3% -8.4% 80% 45% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 45% -7.8%
10% -17.1% 28% -16.6%
15% -25.1% 18% -24.7%
20% -32.5% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$46 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses98 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage8d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$90 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$67 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$74 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$47 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$46 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$10 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $52 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $53 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records