Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8dc…6bdf sports 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$105 (-5%) realized −$113 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate54%32W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$106
14 days−$104
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$46
sports 20% −$110
weather 3% −$24
other 2% −$26
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -12.1% -20.4% 53% 20% -14.4%
≤30d 59 -7.2% -16.0% 54% 25% -15.2%
≤90d 59 -7.2% -16.0% 54% 25% -15.2%
all 59 -7.2% -16.0% 54% 25% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 25% -15.2%
10% -24.0% 19% -23.3%
15% -31.4% 8% -30.7%
20% -38.1% 7% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses32 / 27
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)59 / 63
History coverage20d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? No 89¢ 99¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $39 +$4 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $33 −$25 -74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $80 −$58 -72%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $75 −$48 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $68 −$66 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $97 −$8 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $82 +$21 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $162 +$9 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 +$9 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $166 +$6 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 +$75 +216%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $85 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $92 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $8 −$5 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$11 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +15%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-6.5) vs PARIVISION (+6.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-9.5) vs PARIVISION (+9.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 +$4 +325%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 10 $1 +$4 +400%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $1 $0 +40%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $38 29m
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $38 53m
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $40 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $44 3h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $38 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 14¢ $9 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $39 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $54 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $21 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $25 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 26¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 14¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $60 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 60¢ $6 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 97¢ $87 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $89 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $82 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $9 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $33 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $59 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $89 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $35 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $37 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.56 · official $178.33 (match) · 175 history records