Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8e2…4114 crypto 1232 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,163 (-6%) realized −$1,163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate54%666W / 566L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$410
7 days−$416
14 days−$956
30 days−$1,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -22.6% -30.0% 21% 21% -34.2%
≤30d 718 -15.4% -23.5% 32% 24% -27.3%
≤90d 1066 -9.9% -18.5% 51% 20% -16.8%
all 1232 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 23% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 23% -16.4%
10% -24.6% 17% -24.4%
15% -31.9% 15% -31.7%
20% -38.5% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses666 / 566
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1232 / 1232
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$73 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$70 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$73 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$73 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$64 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$75 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$68 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$76 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $19 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records