Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F8 0xf8e3…baee crypto 714 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-8%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%327W / 377L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$158
crypto 38% −$47
other 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +21.7% +10.1% 69% 69% +0.4%
≤30d 13 +21.7% +10.1% 69% 69% +0.4%
≤90d 454 -15.8% -23.8% 40% 28% -18.7%
all 704 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 28% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 28% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 19% -25.3%
15% -33.2% 14% -32.5%
20% -39.7% 11% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses327 / 377
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions10
Markets (closed)704 / 714
History coverage107d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 66¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 41¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$3 +53%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 23 $1 $0 +40%
Gwangju: Sho Shimabukuro vs Ui-Sung Park Apr 22 $1 $0 +12%
Gwangju: Hayato Matsuoka vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 22 $1 $0 +16%
Gwangju: Yuta Shimizu vs Yasutaka Uchiyama Apr 22 $1 +$1 +124%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 22 $3 $0 +16%
Gwangju: Dane Sweeny vs Tung-Lin Wu Apr 22 $6 $0 -4%
Gwangju: Marat Sharipov vs Leandro Riedi Apr 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Gwangju: Alex Bolt vs Ilia Simakin Apr 22 $15 −$4 -24%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $17 +$4 +23%
Gwangju: Pavel Kotov vs Mikhail Kukushkin Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 19 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 14 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 14 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 14 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 14 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 41m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $3 57m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $3 58m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 59m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 59m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 66¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $5 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $2 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5 21h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 76¢ $3 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $3 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 21h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $3 21h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 65¢ $2 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 43¢ $2 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 43¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 68¢ $2 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $2 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 47d
Gwangju: Marat Sharipov vs Leandro Riedi BUY Leandro Riedi 53¢ $1 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.76 · official $31.76 (match) · 3348 history records