Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf8e3…6548 sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$334 (-7%) realized −$357 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%49W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$252
other 29% +$69
world 3% −$127
politics 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -6.3% -15.2% 47% 47% -9.1%
≤30d 17 -6.3% -15.2% 47% 47% -9.1%
≤90d 17 -6.3% -15.2% 47% 47% -9.1%
all 107 -9.0% -17.6% 46% 44% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 44% -16.2%
10% -25.5% 42% -24.2%
15% -32.7% 36% -31.5%
20% -39.3% 31% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$31 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$357
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses49 / 58
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage247d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 90¢ $15 $38 +$23 (+149%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 44¢ 46¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$114 +160%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$58 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$43 -42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$72 -71%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $253 +$138 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $36 −$19 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$59 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$104 +102%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 +$84 +42%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 25 $78 −$51 -65%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Texans (-3.5) Jan 20 $57 +$20 +35%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $41 −$3 -8%
Spread: Patriots (-1.5) Jan 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-4.5) Jan 12 $101 −$97 -96%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $20 +$21 +108%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $28 −$9 -30%
Spread: Rams (-10.5) Jan 11 $16 +$12 +72%
Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5 Jan 05 $20 −$1 -4%
Spread: Ravens (-3.5) Jan 05 $150 −$50 -33%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 05 $150 −$2 -2%
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-1.5) Jan 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers Dec 27 $18 −$18 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 27 $20 −$2 -10%
Steelers vs. Browns Dec 27 $34 −$34 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 23 $50 +$24 +49%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 22 $53 −$3 -6%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 22 $24 +$39 +165%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 21 $56 −$22 -40%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 21 $44 +$12 +28%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 20 $24 +$20 +82%
Dolphins vs. Steelers Dec 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5) Dec 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Bills (-1.5) Dec 15 $20 +$20 +100%
Panthers vs. Saints Dec 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Chargers vs. Chiefs: O/U 41.5 Dec 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5 Dec 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Panthers (-2.5) Dec 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Browns vs. Bears: O/U 40.5 Dec 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Dec 12 $40 +$14 +35%
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5) Dec 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $23 28m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 55m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $20 55m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $51 18h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $20 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $51 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $121 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $59 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $29 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $390 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $17 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $36 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 25¢ $42 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $205 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 6d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 45¢ $50 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.22 · official $77.37 (match) · 201 history records