Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
F8 0xf8e7…31f3 crypto 96 markets active 24h ago coverage 12d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,357 (+20%) realized +$3,357 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%56W / 40L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$583
7 days+$2,516
14 days+$3,129
30 days+$3,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1,520
crypto 34% +$1,127
sports 24% +$419
politics 1% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +74.0% +57.4% 54% 49% +6.8%
≤30d 96 +57.7% +42.7% 58% 53% +7.8%
≤90d 96 +57.7% +42.7% 58% 53% +7.8%
all 96 +57.7% +42.7% 58% 53% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.7% 53% +7.8%
10% ← realistic here +29.1% 49% -2.5%
15% +16.6% 45% -11.9%
20% +5.2% 38% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +95% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$123 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,357
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses56 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage12d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$53 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,490 −$196 -8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $511 +$1,146 +224%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$54 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,613 +$97 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $174 +$99 +57%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $98 +$76 +78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $515 −$514 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $810 +$534 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $515 +$356 +69%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $237 −$234 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $406 +$445 +109%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,014 −$634 -63%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$1,562 +1519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $211 +$395 +187%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $544 −$525 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $707 +$118 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? Jun 13 $196 −$190 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $610 +$695 +114%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $204 +$402 +197%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $215 +$172 +80%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $442 −$431 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$107 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $92 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $157 +$182 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$99 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$17 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$15 +143%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $6 +$61 +994%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $306 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $156 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 77¢ $2,294 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,490 25h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,657 40h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $103 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $38 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $273 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $174 46h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 91¢ $174 47h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $98 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $125 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $506 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $206 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $112 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $646 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 9¢ $51 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $45 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 318 history records