Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8e9…03a5 sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,067 (-16%) realized −$1,061 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%38W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$273
7 days+$73
14 days−$749
30 days−$1,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$722
other 7% −$296
crypto 3% −$114
world 0% −$11
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.7% -4.4% 39% 39% -4.7%
≤30d 94 -19.4% -27.1% 31% 29% -26.3%
≤90d 94 -19.4% -27.1% 31% 29% -26.3%
all 104 -7.9% -16.7% 37% 34% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 34% -25.9%
10% -24.7% 29% -33.0%
15% -32.0% 25% -39.5%
20% -38.6% 22% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$51 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$1,061
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 66
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage122d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Katherine Sebov Katherine Sebov 35¢ 34¢ $199 $195 −$4 (-2%)
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Ognjen Milic 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Luciano Darderi 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $51 +$149 +291%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 24 $102 +$175 +172%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $56 −$55 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $102 +$142 +140%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $170 −$166 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $36 +$89 +249%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $53 +$85 +160%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $51 +$58 +114%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 −$53 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $112 −$109 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $796 −$796 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 +$128 +84%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $841 +$70 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $103 +$604 +589%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $288 −$75 -26%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $102 +$148 +145%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $55 +$85 +156%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $94 −$39 -42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $153 −$84 -55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $41 −$22 -55%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $183 +$59 +32%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $203 −$106 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Luciano Darderi 40¢ $102 46m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Katherine Sebov BUY Katherine Sebov 35¢ $203 56m
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic BUY Ognjen Milic 41¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Vilius Gaubas 25¢ $51 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $56 17h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Bernard Tomic 34¢ $61 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Remy Bertola vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Remy Bertola 36¢ $102 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 29h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Luciano Darderi 41¢ $102 36h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas $12 37h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 48¢ $98 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $170 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $139 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $17 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 37¢ $51 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $31 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $161 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.59 · official $392.65 (match) · 223 history records