Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8ee…5683 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$4
other 34% −$4
sports 9% −$7
economics 9% −$1
tech 8% $0
crypto 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 33% -0.5%
≤30d 5 -13.4% -21.6% 40% 20% -14.7%
≤90d 8 -8.3% -17.1% 50% 12% -12.6%
all 50 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage386d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 73¢ 72¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka Jun 24 $19 +$6 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on February 7? Mar 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jan 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 11? Jan 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 January 5-11? Jan 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 7? Jan 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on December 7? Jan 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $170 October 27-November 2? Nov 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3,700 on October 20? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 13-19? Oct 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 20 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 17 $900 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD? Oct 17 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 17 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 15 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 15 $900 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 15 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Oct 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 15 $7 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Aug 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 6? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Aug 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 24 $12 $0 +2%
Will Branko Marinković win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Félix González win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 19 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $302 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 09 $295 $0 -0%
Will Sepp Kuss win the Tour de France 2025? Jun 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $291 $0 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $314 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 73¢ $35 1h
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $12 12d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $27 28d
Roland Garros WTA: Laura Siegemund vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 75¢ $19 28d
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $27 28d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 55d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL No 100¢ $49 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 89d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 89d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 89d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $11 139d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 139d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 146d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 146d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 165d
Will Solana dip to $80 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $8 165d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 165d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 165d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $56 199d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 199d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $26 199d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on December 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 199d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $30 199d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 6? BUY No 100¢ $14 231d
Will Solana dip to $170 October 27-November 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 233d
Will Solana dip to $170 October 27-November 2? BUY No 100¢ $6 233d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $450 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.07 · official $34.08 (match) · 140 history records