Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8f0…37eb sports 43 markets active 3h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+0%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,893
7 days+$1,893
14 days+$1,893
30 days+$870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$29
other 13% −$2
crypto 9% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +95.7% +77.0% 100% 100% +47.6%
≤30d 5 +7.8% -2.4% 60% 60% +3.6%
≤90d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 57% -5.3%
all 43 -19.1% -26.8% 51% 16% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 16% -9.4%
10% -33.8% 14% -18.0%
15% -40.2% 14% -26.0%
20% -46.1% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$699) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$136 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage457d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,983 +$1,877 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $12 +$16 +128%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 02 $1,353 +$647 +48%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $741 −$729 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $961 −$940 -98%
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 24 $449 +$207 +46%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 24 $744 −$737 -99%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 17 $7 $0 +5%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Dec 16 $22 $0 +1%
Ducks vs. Avalanche Nov 11 $90 −$90 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Nov 11 $135 −$135 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Nov 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Red Wings vs. Blues Oct 29 $69 +$66 +96%
Penguins vs. Flyers Oct 29 $95 +$64 +67%
Nets vs. Rockets Oct 28 $90 +$10 +11%
Blue Jackets vs. Sabres Oct 28 $62 −$62 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Oct 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Oct 27 $90 −$90 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Oct 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 27 $7 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Rockets May 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will another team win the Serie A? Apr 12 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? Apr 12 $1,187 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Apr 12 $699 −$1 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Rainbow airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Avail airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 04 $6 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $833 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $835 −$2 -0%
Will North Carolina win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $735 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $4,860 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $28 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $2,407 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $239 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $337 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 48¢ $10 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 48¢ $34 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $4 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $10 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $38 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $165 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $41 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $24 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $143 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $47 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $2 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 27¢ $89 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 27¢ $27 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 27¢ $90 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 28¢ $14 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 27¢ $253 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 28¢ $92 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 30¢ $54 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 29¢ $91 17d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St BUY Lavked 47¢ $3 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 30¢ $30 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 30¢ $93 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 30¢ $4 17d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner BUY GIANTX 30¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records