Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F8 0xf8ff…627f other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$123 (+14%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$56
14 days+$78
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$42
politics 11% +$37
sports 4% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +13.7% +2.8% 65% 53% -0.2%
≤30d 28 +12.4% +1.7% 64% 54% +0.5%
≤90d 30 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 53% +2.7%
all 30 +11.2% +0.6% 63% 53% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 53% +2.7%
10% -9.1% 50% -7.1%
15% -17.8% 47% -16.1%
20% -25.9% 27% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage78d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $66 +$2 +3%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $58 +$59 +101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 +$17 +47%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Jun 23 $10 +$28 +273%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $58 +$8 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $28 +$12 +45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$17 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$18 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 +$14 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$4 +68%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$12 +47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +54%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +54%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $99 +$37 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $66 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 32h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 44h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 44h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA SELL Yes 99¢ $39 2d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Ghana FIFA BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $36 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $58 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $49 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $36 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $37 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 8d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.50 · official $64.50 (match) · 65 history records