Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F8 0xf8ff…ee99 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$6 (-14%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$19
sports 24% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.1% +26.7% 75% 75% +10.3%
≤30d 4 +40.1% +26.7% 75% 75% +10.3%
≤90d 4 +40.1% +26.7% 75% 75% +10.3%
all 4 +40.1% +26.7% 75% 75% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.7% 75% +10.3%
10% +14.6% 50% -0.3%
15% +3.5% 50% -9.9%
20% -6.6% 50% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $3 +$6 +180%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $20 +$12 +59%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $9 43m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $3 55m
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records