Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf904…495d sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$723 (-5%) realized −$722 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%66W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$134
14 days−$217
30 days+$782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$563
other 4% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 50% -26.0%
≤30d 27 +30.8% +18.3% 70% 70% +15.2%
≤90d 79 -8.8% -17.5% 52% 52% -11.8%
all 130 -10.1% -18.7% 51% 51% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 51% -14.1%
10% -26.4% 50% -22.3%
15% -33.5% 44% -29.8%
20% -40.1% 33% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$101 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$722
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses66 / 64
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage165d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 34¢ 34¢ $68 $67 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $129 +$71 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $89 −$88 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $107 +$93 +86%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $111 −$110 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$61 +44%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $141 −$140 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 10 $71 +$29 +41%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $115 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $67 −$66 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $57 +$93 +165%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $79 +$121 +152%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $93 +$107 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $87 +$113 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 31 $95 +$105 +109%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $119 +$81 +67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 29 $93 +$107 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $127 +$73 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $95 +$105 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $104 +$46 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $247 +$53 +21%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $129 −$128 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $131 +$69 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $83 −$82 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $59 −$58 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $119 +$81 +67%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $61 −$60 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 04 $135 +$65 +48%
Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $121 +$79 +65%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $57 +$43 +76%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 30 $103 −$3 -3%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $138 +$60 +44%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $116 −$115 -99%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $130 +$68 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $69 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $151 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $129 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $89 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $107 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $111 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 9d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 70¢ $141 9d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 71¢ $58 11d
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY XLG Gaming 71¢ $13 11d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $73 12d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $115 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $67 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $57 18d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $79 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 46¢ $93 20d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 47¢ $95 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $87 21d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $93 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $119 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $127 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $115 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $91 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $91 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $95 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $139 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $137 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.00 · official $67.00 (match) · 211 history records