Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf906…c7dd sports 26 markets active 4d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92 (+37%) realized +$83 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$86
sports 25% +$9
world 5% $0
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 2 +72.6% +56.2% 50% 50% +22.8%
≤90d 2 +72.6% +56.2% 50% 50% +22.8%
all 22 -14.2% -22.4% 41% 36% +31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 36% +31.4%
10% -29.8% 36% +18.8%
15% -36.6% 36% +7.3%
20% -42.8% 23% -3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +45% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage125d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 45¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $33 −$2 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $12 +$17 +150%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO5) - LCP P Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa finish second in the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-26? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 26? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $43 +$92 +212%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $3 +$3 +104%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $5 +$2 +47%
Rockets vs. Magic Feb 27 $2 +$1 +75%
Mensik vs. Griekspoor: Match O/U 21.5 Feb 27 $6 $0 +7%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5 Feb 27 $5 +$3 +51%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5 Feb 27 $5 +$2 +43%
T20 World Cup: Australia vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 25 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $12 +$5 +45%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $23 5d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $39 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 6d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 27d
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $2 94d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes 38¢ $3 94d
Will South Africa finish second in the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 110d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY BNK FEARX 49¢ $3 110d
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO5) - LCP P BUY Ground Zero Gaming 62¢ $5 110d
Rockets vs. Magic SELL Rockets 100¢ $3 110d
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 110d
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 110d
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 110d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27? BUY No 78¢ $5 110d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 110d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $7 110d
Timberwolves vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 35¢ $1 110d
Rockets vs. Magic BUY Rockets 57¢ $2 110d
Mensik vs. Griekspoor: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 93¢ $6 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 26? BUY Up 55¢ $3 111d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Deep Cross Gaming 42¢ $1 111d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $5 111d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 111d
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-26? BUY No 62¢ $5 111d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 111d
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $35 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.58 · official $72.58 (match) · 57 history records