Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F9 0xf906…de07 crypto 49 markets active 14h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$323 (+15%) realized +$322 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$284
other 33% +$7
politics 6% +$1
sports 2% +$5
tech 1% −$1
world 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.9% +17.5% 50% 50% -1.1%
≤30d 6 +29.9% +17.5% 50% 50% -1.1%
≤90d 31 +30.1% +17.7% 55% 48% +15.1%
all 47 +21.9% +10.3% 62% 34% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 34% +7.3%
10% -0.2% 34% -2.9%
15% -9.9% 34% -12.3%
20% -18.7% 34% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$322
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage553d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$13 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$3 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $129 −$13 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys May 08 $50 +$5 +10%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 08 $37 −$35 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $31 +$29 +94%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 08 $20 +$37 +187%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 08 $37 +$32 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 08 $32 +$27 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 08 $37 −$5 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 08 $255 −$75 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 08 $37 +$114 +310%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 08 $25 +$68 +272%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $51 +$33 +64%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 08 $10 −$2 -20%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? May 08 $3 +$9 +292%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 08 $36 +$32 +88%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 08 $26 +$17 +66%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 08 $16 −$15 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 08 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 08 $31 +$25 +80%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 08 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 08 $26 −$25 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 08 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 08 $26 +$22 +86%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (Decemb Jan 27 $14 $0 +1%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 19 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Nov 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? Nov 30 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - November 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 30 $106 +$102 +96%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave qualify for the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Fina Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Olympique Lyon play in Ligue 1? Aug 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will LDP hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Jul 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? Jun 09 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 05 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 21 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 17 $556 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $45 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $24 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $25 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $23 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $24 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $44 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 15h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $10 26h
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys SELL Naomi Osaka 85¢ $55 38d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys BUY Naomi Osaka 77¢ $50 38d
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 38d
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.89 · official $26.89 (match) · 169 history records