Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F9 0xf90c…abb7 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)

Total PnL −$1,135 (-8%) realized −$1,123 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +98% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip

Net edge+62%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$2,459per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Fees−$89est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$5,403now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+79.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+98.1%	+79.2%	50%	50%	+67.2%
≤30d	2	+98.1%	+79.2%	50%	50%	+67.2%
≤90d	2	+98.1%	+79.2%	50%	50%	+67.2%
all	2	+98.1%	+79.2%	50%	50%	+67.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+79.2%	50%	+67.2%
10% ← realistic here	+62.0%	50%	+51.2%
15%	+46.4%	50%	+36.6%
20%	+32.0%	50%	+23.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +85% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +98% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$8,872 vs −$1,027 · ×8.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.64 per $1 lost it wins $8.64

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$5,403

Realized−$1,123

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$89

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage9d

Avg bet$2,459

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	100¢	$2,240	$2,634	+$394 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$1,736	$1,584	−$152 (-9%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$1,195	$1,185	−$10 (-1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5	Under	22¢	0¢	$244	$1	−$243 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)	Jun 28	$4,107	+$8,872	+216%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$5,149	−$1,027	-20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$40	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$2,210	1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	21¢	$92	1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	22¢	$157	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$46	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,164	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$247	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1,521	2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$19	2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)	BUY DR Congo	31¢	$4,107	5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$4,122	5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$31	7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5,108	7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,403.34 · official $5,403.34 (match) · 23 history records