Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf90c…0850 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-2%) realized −$71 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$401
other 13% +$394
world 6% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +53.4% +38.8% 34% 34% -14.7%
≤30d 29 +53.4% +38.8% 34% 34% -14.7%
≤90d 29 +53.4% +38.8% 34% 34% -14.7%
all 29 +53.4% +38.8% 34% 34% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.8% 34% -14.7%
10% +25.5% 34% -22.8%
15% +13.4% 34% -30.3%
20% +2.3% 28% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$86 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 48¢ $250 $264 +$14 (+5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$87 -85%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $198 −$198 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$101 +982%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$265 +1288%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $212 −$212 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $261 −$261 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$67 -33%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$109 +108%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 +$157 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$159 -78%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$273 +134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $86 +$43 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $200 −$119 -59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 +$200 +100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$102 +250%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $233 +$97 +42%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $254 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $106 12h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $198 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 19h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $136 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 41h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $101 43h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $103 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $44 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $86 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $81 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $261 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $203 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $107 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.86 · official $274.52 · 83 history records