Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F9 0xf90e…258b other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$1,026 (-30%) realized −$1,024 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%10W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$139per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+19.6%	+8.2%	43%	43%	-15.6%
≤30d	23	+19.6%	+8.2%	43%	43%	-15.6%
≤90d	23	+19.6%	+8.2%	43%	43%	-15.6%
all	23	+19.6%	+8.2%	43%	43%	-15.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.2%	43%	-15.6%
10%	-2.1%	43%	-23.7%
15%	-11.6%	43%	-31.1%
20%	-20.2%	35%	-37.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +42% → late -1% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$132 vs −$179 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$41

Realized−$1,024

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses10 / 13

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage6d

Avg bet$139

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	No	30¢	28¢	$33	$30	−$3 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$34	+$26	+76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$130	−$5	-4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$8	+$4	+46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 16	$46	−$45	-98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$45	−$44	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$26	−$25	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$24	+$48	+197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$71	+$129	+180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$501	−$500	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$73	+$67	+92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$277	−$277	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$125	+$160	+129%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$113	+$152	+134%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$90	−$90	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$114	+$470	+414%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$36	−$4	-12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$31	−$2	-6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$1,284	−$1,177	-92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$127	+$210	+165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$112	+$49	+44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 11	$41	−$40	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	30¢	$34	1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY No	56¢	$34	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	24¢	$74	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	51¢	$121	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	23¢	$56	4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	29¢	$46	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$8	27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	21¢	$45	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	35¢	$26	30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	33¢	$24	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	35¢	$71	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$501	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	2¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$11	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	37¢	$122	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	52¢	$42	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	52¢	$31	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	37¢	$2	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	37¢	$153	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	50¢	$100	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	36¢	$90	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	43¢	$125	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	42¢	$113	4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$31	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	6¢	$29	4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$36	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	19¢	$114	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$31	4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	5¢	$0	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.32 · official $41.32 (match) · 55 history records