Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf90f…8477 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,521per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$79
crypto 0% −$7
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 +3.2% -6.6% 73% 36% -9.6%
all 11 +3.2% -6.6% 73% 36% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 36% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 27% -18.3%
15% -23.7% 18% -26.2%
20% -31.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$37 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage70d
Avg bet$6,521
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $78,016 −$79 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 07 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 07 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 07 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 07 $21 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 07 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 07 $11 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $14 0m
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $14 0m
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 100¢ $1 0m
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $1 0m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $3.00 · 188 history records