trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 100% | 0% | -5.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 50% | 25% | -4.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 40% | 20% | -5.3% |
| all | 19 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 53% | 5% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.5% | 5% | -7.3% |
| 10% | -18.2% | 0% | -16.1% |
| 15% | -26.1% | 0% | -24.2% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -31.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $28 | $29 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $64 | +$3 | +5% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 27 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 26 | $47 | +$6 | +14% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $17 | $0 | -1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 24 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 02 | $6 | $0 | +4% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | Oct 10 | $8 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Jul 05 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? | Jul 03 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? | Jul 03 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 03 | $0 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 02 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Jul 01 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 29 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? | Apr 21 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee | Apr 20 | $9 | −$3 | -37% |
| Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Apr 19 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |