Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf913…c2f5 sports 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$158 (-2%) realized −$119 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%68W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day60.8pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$42
14 days−$559
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$304
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +5.0% -5.0% 68% 59% -9.9%
≤30d 107 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 53% -11.8%
≤90d 107 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 53% -11.8%
all 107 -3.2% -12.4% 64% 53% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 53% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 46% -20.2%
15% -28.5% 36% -27.9%
20% -35.5% 25% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$49 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses68 / 39
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage19d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day60.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 49¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $102 −$79 -78%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $212 +$9 +4%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $48 +$10 +21%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $88 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $342 +$22 +6%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $93 +$28 +30%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $18 +$2 +12%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$8 +16%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $34 +$33 +98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $87 −$76 -86%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $64 +$33 +51%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $195 −$140 -72%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $126 +$27 +22%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $50 +$13 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $41 +$10 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $80 +$51 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $66 −$51 -78%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $61 +$68 +111%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $36 −$7 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$7 -36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $97 −$35 -36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $87 +$37 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $74 +$33 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $42 +$23 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $98 +$29 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $72 +$58 +81%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $9 +$11 +117%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $99 −$77 -77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $105 +$27 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $43 +$16 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$20 +68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $157 −$109 -69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$20 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $116 −$104 -90%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$28 -89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $96 +$12 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $86 +$21 +24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$8 +20%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $39 −$15 -39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $94 +$12 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $88 −$73 -83%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $26 +$20 +80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $189 +$80 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $108 +$11 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $157 −$104 -66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$41 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 62¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 64¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $65 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $56 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $57 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $9 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $11 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $11 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 70¢ $14 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 45¢ $9 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $8 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $9 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $9 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $130 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 98¢ $83 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 98¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 93¢ $46 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 90¢ $45 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 1189 history records