Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf913…9e87 weather 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,199 (+8%) realized +$1,186 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate78%131W / 38L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$113
14 days−$27
30 days+$791
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -34.5% -40.7% 53% 40% -17.7%
≤30d 116 +1.7% -8.0% 81% 53% -3.3%
≤90d 169 +0.5% -9.1% 78% 54% -2.2%
all 169 +0.5% -9.1% 78% 54% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 54% -2.2%
10% -17.8% 25% -11.6%
15% -25.8% 11% -20.1%
20% -33.0% 7% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$1,186
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses131 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)169 / 171
History coverage54d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? No 89¢ 95¢ $99 $106 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $231 −$75 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $178 +$22 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $141 +$27 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $245 +$45 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $187 +$53 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $131 +$11 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$25 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $67 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $208 +$23 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $94 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $43 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $158 −$157 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $145 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $47 +$17 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $176 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $42 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $103 +$17 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $116 +$33 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $25 +$6 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $227 +$73 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $202 +$28 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $86 +$21 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $118 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $130 +$15 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $91 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $85 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $64 −$64 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL No 78¢ $154 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL No 78¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 53¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $178 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $110 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $168 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $41 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.36 · official $122.14 · 894 history records