Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf917…e58e crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-6%) realized −$111 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%34W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$100
politics 30% +$1
other 7% $0
tech 3% +$1
sports 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 67% 59% -1.4%
≤30d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 67% 59% -1.4%
≤90d 27 +12.5% +1.8% 67% 59% -1.4%
all 53 -2.8% -12.1% 64% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 36% -12.8%
10% -20.5% 34% -21.1%
15% -28.2% 34% -28.7%
20% -35.2% 32% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses34 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage553d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 54¢ 46¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-14%)
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 54¢ 44¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 53¢ 42¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 51¢ 36¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$17 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$20 +78%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$18 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$22 +92%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 04 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 04 $60 −$59 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 04 $50 +$83 +166%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 04 $72 −$71 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 02 $98 +$41 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 02 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2025 Extremadura regional election? Jan 11 $19 $0 +0%
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 30%? Dec 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 01 $108 +$108 +100%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Nov 30 $25 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? Nov 30 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave qualify for the 2025 Grand Chess Tour Fina Sep 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Olympique Lyon play in Ligue 1? Aug 20 $24 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Jul 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Colombia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $14 −$1 -7%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? May 22 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.67 · official $78.79 (match) · 136 history records