Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf91c…fdb0 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$61
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$23
sports 40% +$71
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.2% -18.8% 31% 31% +8.7%
≤30d 43 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 33% +16.2%
≤90d 43 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 33% +16.2%
all 43 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 33% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 33% +16.2%
10% -21.1% 33% +5.1%
15% -28.7% 33% -5.1%
20% -35.7% 28% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage8d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$8 +158%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$20 +77%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$8 +82%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -93%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$11 +46%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 +$31 +123%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$10 +291%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 AN Jun 18 $5 +$47 +914%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $13 20m
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25m
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $32 31m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 41m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4h
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $10 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $14 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $5 8h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $5 8h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 12h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 12h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 29h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 29h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 17¢ $10 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 32h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records