Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf91d…847b crypto 527 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%476W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$40
sports 1% −$7
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 508 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 13% -11.6%
≤30d 508 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 13% -11.6%
≤90d 527 -1.8% -11.2% 90% 13% -11.8%
all 527 -1.8% -11.2% 90% 13% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 13% -11.8%
10% -19.7% 3% -20.2%
15% -27.4% 2% -27.9%
20% -34.5% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses476 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)527 / 527
History coverage66d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 527 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1120 history records