Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf91e…dc10 crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$175 (+7%) realized +$194 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%45W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$195
14 days+$116
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$176
crypto 15% −$64
other 10% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +100.9% +81.8% 61% 61% +15.4%
≤30d 93 +12.1% +1.5% 48% 47% -4.0%
≤90d 93 +12.1% +1.5% 48% 47% -4.0%
all 93 +12.1% +1.5% 48% 47% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 47% -4.0%
10% -8.2% 38% -13.2%
15% -17.1% 30% -21.6%
20% -25.2% 19% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$194
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses45 / 48
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions7
Markets (closed)93 / 100
History coverage28d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner HOTU 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 1 Winner ALGO Esports 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 +$34 +3262%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$33 +66%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $30 +$11 +37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$41 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +166%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$22 +43%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $70 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $57 +$38 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $8 +$9 +103%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2AM ET Jun 02 $41 +$13 +33%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 02 $40 +$21 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner May 26 $121 −$120 -99%
Bitcoin above 77,600 on May 26, 7AM ET? May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner May 25 $91 +$57 +63%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $58 −$15 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 25 $5 −$1 -24%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner May 25 $81 +$36 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 24 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 24 $7 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 24 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL HOTU 36¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 19¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL HOTU 33¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 35¢ $10 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $30 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 63¢ $35 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 96¢ $84 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $51 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 91¢ $42 21h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 66¢ $30 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 96¢ $92 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $51 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $17 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $73 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $50 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 40h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 41h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $72 44h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 69¢ $50 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 87¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.95 · official $127.95 (match) · 216 history records