Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf91f…e8df crypto 69 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$231 (-22%) realized −$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$94
other 21% −$146
finance 5% $0
tech 2% −$12
world 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -11.7% -20.1% 59% 14% -39.3%
≤30d 67 -19.5% -27.2% 48% 10% -34.5%
≤90d 67 -19.5% -27.2% 48% 10% -34.5%
all 67 -19.5% -27.2% 48% 10% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 10% -34.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 4% -40.8%
15% -40.5% 3% -46.5%
20% -46.3% 1% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $93 −$60 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$69 -68%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 −$9 -45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$5 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $19 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $39 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $32 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $32 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 32¢ $11 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Down 100¢ $21 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.88 · official $9.88 (match) · 274 history records