Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf920…665f crypto 26 markets active 10h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22,731 (-75%) realized −$22,227 · open −$504
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,172per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 44% −$11,725
world 38% −$6,434
crypto 10% −$2,442
sports 6% −$1,820
politics 2% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 13 -25.4% -32.5% 31% 31% -70.8%
all 24 -53.0% -57.5% 21% 21% -80.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 21% -80.8%
10% -61.5% 21% -82.7%
15% -65.3% 17% -84.3%
20% -68.7% 17% -85.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$2,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -87% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$1,230 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$1,379
Realized−$22,227
Unrealized−$504
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,172
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No $883 $879 −$4 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No $1,000 $500 −$500 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $1,830 −$1,820 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 07 $27 −$26 -95%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 29 $103 +$211 +206%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 16 $50 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 16 $50 +$86 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 16 $50 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 15 $100 +$52 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 14 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 14 $100 +$71 +71%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2,969 −$926 -31%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $2,968 −$2,968 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $7,796 −$7,794 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 07 $490 −$490 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 28 $2,000 −$1,969 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 28 $500 −$448 -90%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $2,000 +$539 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Jan 31 $600 −$600 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $3,000 −$2,379 -79%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $500 −$500 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $2,348 −$2,348 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No $923 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No $1,050 10h
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $1,830 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $27 41d
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? BUY Yes 32¢ $103 49d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes $100 51d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No $300 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down $50 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $50 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up $50 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $152 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $100 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $100 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $100 63d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $929 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $1 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $19 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $26 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $0 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $10 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $1 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $1 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $0 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $155 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $9 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $9 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $1 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $0 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $0 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes $0 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,378.65 · official $1,378.65 (match) · 68 history records