trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 13 | -25.4% | -32.5% | 31% | 31% | -70.8% |
| all | 24 | -53.0% | -57.5% | 21% | 21% | -80.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -57.5% | 21% | -80.8% |
| 10% | -61.5% | 21% | -82.7% |
| 15% | -65.3% | 17% | -84.3% |
| 20% | -68.7% | 17% | -85.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 8¢ | 8¢ | $883 | $879 | −$4 (-0%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1,000 | $500 | −$500 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | May 09 | $1,830 | −$1,820 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET | May 07 | $27 | −$26 | -95% |
| Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? | Apr 29 | $103 | +$211 | +206% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Apr 26 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 26 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET | Apr 16 | $50 | −$46 | -93% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | Apr 16 | $50 | +$86 | +172% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET | Apr 16 | $50 | −$46 | -93% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET | Apr 15 | $100 | +$52 | +52% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | Apr 14 | $100 | −$96 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET | Apr 14 | $100 | +$71 | +71% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 07 | $2,969 | −$926 | -31% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 30 | $2,968 | −$2,968 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 18 | $7,796 | −$7,794 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 07 | $490 | −$490 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 07 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | Feb 28 | $2,000 | −$1,969 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | Feb 28 | $500 | −$448 | -90% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $2,000 | +$539 | +27% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET | Feb 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? | Jan 31 | $600 | −$600 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 31 | $3,000 | −$2,379 | -79% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 30 | $500 | −$500 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $2,348 | −$2,348 | -100% |