Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf922…a13c crypto 48 markets active 6d ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$124 (-46%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$130
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$61
world 43% −$87
other 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 33% -76.1%
≤30d 17 -65.3% -68.6% 18% 18% -81.1%
≤90d 17 -65.3% -68.6% 18% 18% -81.1%
all 48 -48.3% -53.2% 25% 23% -61.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.2% 23% -61.9%
10% -57.7% 19% -65.5%
15% -61.8% 19% -68.9%
20% -65.5% 15% -71.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage115d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$5 -47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $87 −$87 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $16 +$15 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 21 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 21 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 21 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 21 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 21 $8 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 21 $6 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 21 $3 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 21 $2 −$1 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 21 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Feb 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 16 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 16 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 16 $1 +$2 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records