Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf924…a0cc sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$367 (-1%) realized −$171 · open −$196
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$1,698per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$524est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$8,672now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,975
14 days−$8,403
30 days+$558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$714
other 8% −$351
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 22 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 41% -7.5%
≤90d 22 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 41% -7.5%
all 22 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 41% -7.5%
10% -29.7% 41% -16.4%
15% -36.5% 41% -24.4%
20% -42.7% 32% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,719) neutral
Persistence
early +25% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,543 vs −$1,026 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$8,672
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$196
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$524
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,698
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Taylor Fritz 68¢ 66¢ $8,868 $8,672 −$196 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,991 −$1,975 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $451 −$442 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,533 −$1,507 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $807 −$791 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $207 −$202 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $3,027 −$2,986 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5,243 −$500 -10%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $1,726 +$1,674 +97%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 06 $455 +$213 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,719 +$1,156 +67%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $1,644 +$1,093 +66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $554 +$1,091 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $399 +$156 +39%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $632 −$624 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $299 +$334 +112%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $544 −$539 -99%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 03 $307 −$62 -20%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $2,329 −$2,293 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $4,079 +$7,673 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $508 −$412 -81%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Zverev Jun 02 $642 +$501 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $8,953 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $1,991 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 21¢ $5 11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,533 11d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 34¢ $446 11d
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Tom Gentzsch 32¢ $807 11d
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 21¢ $199 12d
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 20¢ $8 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $3,027 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $512 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 59¢ $3,511 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $4,731 14d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $1,726 14d
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $668 14d
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $455 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,875 14d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,719 14d
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) BUY Cayman Islands 45¢ $1,016 14d
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) BUY Andreeva 59¢ $1,644 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $554 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Matteo Arnaldi 49¢ $555 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Matteo Arnaldi 34¢ $399 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 56¢ $632 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 46¢ $299 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $544 17d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 20¢ $245 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 21¢ $300 18d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Anna Kalinskaya 52¢ $2,029 18d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 24¢ $307 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $11,753 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,672.13 · official $8,672.13 (match) · 39 history records