Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf926…d23c world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$1
other 14% $0
politics 10% +$1
crypto 9% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage456d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -46%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $73 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $93 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $25 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $0 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $0 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $38 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $38 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $1 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $38 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $39 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $22 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $12 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $21 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $14 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $26 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $26 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records