Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F9 0xf927…94b5 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL −$437 (-7%) realized −$430 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%35W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$194
14 days+$194
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$318
other 42% −$72
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +40.5% +27.1% 58% 58% -1.0%
≤30d 31 +40.5% +27.1% 58% 58% -1.0%
≤90d 31 +40.5% +27.1% 58% 58% -1.0%
all 58 +23.0% +11.3% 60% 57% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 57% -14.0%
10% +0.7% 53% -22.2%
15% -9.1% 47% -29.7%
20% -18.0% 38% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$107 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$430
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses35 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage146d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $40 $73 +$33 (+82%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Jun 25 $151 +$66 +44%
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $98 −$97 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ Jun 25 $10 +$75 +735%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 +$7 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $9 +$26 +291%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 24 $204 −$197 -96%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 24 $119 +$90 +76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $41 +$70 +172%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $81 +$59 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$23 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 +$32 +158%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $152 −$150 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $69 −$66 -95%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$48 +237%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $88 +$169 +190%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$22 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $89 +$46 +52%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $297 −$297 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $240 +$57 +24%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 04 $48 −$48 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $190 −$135 -71%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $65 +$70 +108%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Feb 04 $88 +$51 +58%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-02? Feb 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $670 −$670 -100%
Kings vs. Wizards Feb 02 $79 +$84 +106%
Lakers vs. Knicks Feb 02 $133 +$123 +92%
Jazz vs. Raptors Feb 02 $201 +$70 +35%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 02 $75 +$39 +51%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 02 $22 $0 -0%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Feb 02 $300 +$57 +19%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $389 +$17 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $165 +$152 +92%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $226 +$67 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Feb 01 $31 −$16 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 25h
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $20 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 36h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 36h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $351 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $98 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ SELL 97¢ $86 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals SELL Yes $7 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $41 2d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $119 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $81 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.10 · official $93.10 (match) · 120 history records