Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf92b…27c7 crypto 69 markets active 5d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-17%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%32W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$25
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.9% -29.3% 64% 18% -20.4%
≤30d 69 -26.2% -33.2% 46% 29% -27.5%
≤90d 69 -26.2% -33.2% 46% 29% -27.5%
all 69 -26.2% -33.2% 46% 29% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 29% -27.5%
10% -39.6% 22% -34.4%
15% -45.4% 17% -40.7%
20% -50.8% 12% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $25 −$20 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $15 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records