Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf92c…87f7 sports 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,762 (-5%) realized −$3,668 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%26W / 200L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$288est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$598
7 days−$1,047
14 days−$1,489
30 days−$2,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$712
finance 15% −$840
sports 14% −$401
other 12% −$867
crypto 11% −$604
politics 9% −$509
tech 9% −$407
economics 2% −$94
culture 1% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +0.8% -8.8% 18% 18% -14.5%
≤30d 115 -4.2% -13.4% 9% 9% -14.9%
≤90d 226 -4.0% -13.1% 12% 5% -15.0%
all 226 -4.0% -13.1% 12% 5% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -15.0%
10% -21.4% 5% -23.1%
15% -29.0% 5% -30.6%
20% -36.0% 5% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$546) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$3,668
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses26 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage80d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+89%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $117 $5 −$112 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 18 $675 −$6 -1%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 18 $110 −$15 -14%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 18 $441 −$60 -14%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $106 −$8 -7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $193 −$25 -13%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 17 $1,343 −$83 -6%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$19 +178%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 17 $935 −$176 -19%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $710 −$8 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 17 $1,040 −$114 -11%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $182 −$4 -2%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 16 $2,375 −$71 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $208 −$19 -9%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $273 −$35 -13%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $313 −$4 -1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$49 +238%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $462 −$6 -1%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $330 −$108 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $820 −$10 -1%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 15 $550 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 15 $226 −$15 -7%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$21 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 14 $1,420 −$79 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $225 −$9 -4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $198 −$15 -8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $650 −$7 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $1,631 −$59 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 13 $160 −$20 -12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $195 −$11 -5%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $300 −$16 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $400 −$14 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $210 −$15 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 79¢ $670 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 79¢ $675 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 2h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 3h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 3h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 3h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 3h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $95 3h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 43¢ $381 3h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $75 6h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 6h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 6h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 49¢ $441 6h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 8h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $96 8h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 8h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $104 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 17¢ $59 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $180 9h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 11h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 11h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL No 73¢ $498 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $20 16h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? SELL No 78¢ $240 18h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? BUY No 81¢ $810 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.12 · official $43.12 (match) · 1335 history records