Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf92c…a387 sports 523 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$326 (-2%) realized −$334 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%211W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$227
14 days+$92
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$378
world 14% −$50
other 14% +$34
crypto 7% −$139
politics 7% −$40
tech 0% −$11
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -20.9% -28.4% 35% 32% -16.0%
≤30d 407 -7.5% -16.3% 42% 37% -10.0%
≤90d 510 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 36% -13.0%
all 510 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 36% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 36% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 32% -21.4%
15% -33.9% 28% -29.0%
20% -40.4% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses211 / 299
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions6
Markets (closed)510 / 523
History coverage37d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+30%)
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $32 $28 −$3 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$14 -67%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$4 -55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$20 +100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $34 +$26 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$23 +83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$23 -74%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$23 -46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $35 +$25 +72%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$25 +165%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$16 +89%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$13 -48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $28 +$16 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$32 +104%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 +$8 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$15 +360%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$16 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 +$18 +142%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$29 +287%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$28 +140%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$33 +322%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$14 -55%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$15 -31%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 22¢ $20 30m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 30m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 23¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $20 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 7¢ $2 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 4¢ $2 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 10¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 20¢ $8 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $15 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 56¢ $10 7h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Sprea BUY 23¢ $20 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 2¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 9¢ $5 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 28h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 56¢ $34 28h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 15¢ $7 29h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $14 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 25¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 13¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 34¢ $21 29h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 37¢ $15 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.65 · official $176.65 · 1683 history records