Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf92c…4cdb sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$49 (-13%) realized −$34 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$82
14 days+$93
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$87
other 15% −$4
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -13.5% -21.7% 26% 26% +14.6%
≤30d 44 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 27% +17.1%
≤90d 44 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 27% +17.1%
all 44 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 27% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 27% +17.1%
10% -26.8% 27% +5.9%
15% -33.9% 25% -4.3%
20% -40.4% 25% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$6 · ×3.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)44 / 51
History coverage15d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 42¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+196%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 41¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-69%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$153 +1493%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +170%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $8 +$16 +199%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$16 +81%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 +$12 +122%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$12 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $5 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $5 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 24h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $10 25h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $5 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 81¢ $13 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 25h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 26h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $10 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $55 40h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 41h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $5 41h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 41h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.67 · official $29.67 (match) · 93 history records