Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf92d…a225
other · 135 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$531 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$419 · open −$102
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$419
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses34 / 99
Open positions4
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage40d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day87.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 4 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$567
14 days−$862
30 days+$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $11 $6 −$6 (-49%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +208%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$25 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $118 +$49 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $112 −$16 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $150 −$74 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $190 −$73 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $151 −$57 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $100 −$67 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $26 −$21 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $200 −$104 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $166 −$97 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $50 −$6 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $61 −$10 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $52 −$42 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $150 +$20 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $100 −$29 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $92 −$29 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $80 −$29 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $67 −$23 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $0 $0 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $50 +$73 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $113 +$122 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $32 −$16 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $244 −$35 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $100 −$54 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $11 −$10 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $50 −$33 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $50 −$28 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $49 −$32 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $56 −$22 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $38 −$7 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $30 −$8 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $31 −$11 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $50 +$79 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 29 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $100 −$78 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $117 −$77 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $50 −$46 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $100 −$85 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $67 −$32 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $88 −$19 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$507
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 7h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 8h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $45 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -27.6% -34.5% 19% 12% -42.7%
≤30d 101 +5.4% -4.7% 28% 26% -3.1%
≤90d 133 -6.0% -15.0% 26% 23% -13.1%
all 133 -6.0% -15.0% 26% 23% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 23% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 20% -21.4%
15% -30.5% 17% -29.0%
20% -37.3% 17% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.63 · official $10.63 (match) · 3500 history records