Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F9 0xf92e…d539 sports 750 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%345W / 400L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$28
14 days+$17
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$67
other 28% −$2
crypto 2% −$42
world 0% −$12
weather 0% −$14
politics 0% −$12
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -1.2% -10.6% 48% 47% -11.3%
≤30d 292 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 48% -5.4%
≤90d 739 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 42% -10.3%
all 745 -2.5% -11.7% 46% 43% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 43% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 40% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 35% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 30% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses345 / 400
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)745 / 750
History coverage96d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 45¢ 66¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+46%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 52¢ 34¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 322 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $49 +$18 +36%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $154 −$13 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +47%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $41 +$30 +74%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$7 -7%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $60 +$18 +30%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $118 −$17 -14%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$3 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$18 -70%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -11%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $14 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $10 +$16 +160%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 45¢ $30 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $41 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $49 7h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $40 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $69 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $40 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 18h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 89¢ $71 20h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 50¢ $41 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $95 21h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 46¢ $38 22h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ $41 23h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 99¢ $78 23h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 76¢ $60 24h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 85¢ $60 25h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 66¢ $47 25h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 34¢ $41 25h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 57¢ $71 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $76 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 66¢ $51 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $52 28h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 46¢ $12 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.20 · official $70.21 (match) · 1270 history records