Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf930…e346 sports 648 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,973 (-1%) realized −$2,316 · open +$343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%313W / 330L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$562est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$580
14 days+$396
30 days+$2,403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$2,816
other 10% −$3,072
crypto 0% −$730
politics 0% +$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +8.9% -1.5% 47% 47% +2.5%
≤30d 104 +5.6% -4.4% 46% 46% -1.4%
≤90d 132 +3.3% -6.5% 45% 45% -3.8%
all 643 -1.6% -11.0% 49% 49% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 49% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 48% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 46% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 42% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$342 vs −$328 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$868
Realized−$2,316
Unrealized+$343
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses313 / 330
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$562
Open positions2
Markets (closed)643 / 648
History coverage635d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 47¢ 84¢ $425 $758 +$333 (+78%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea Jun 23 $254 +$337 +132%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $605 −$59 -10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $204 +$376 +184%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $41 +$50 +122%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 21 $203 +$33 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on Jun 20 $255 +$410 +161%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden Jun 20 $405 +$291 +72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $355 +$192 +54%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $153 +$253 +165%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $508 −$500 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $254 −$119 -47%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $254 −$250 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $203 +$241 +119%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $129 −$126 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $636 +$298 +47%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $547 +$404 +74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $356 −$350 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $305 +$308 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $254 −$124 -49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $404 +$211 +52%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $335 −$34 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $736 −$730 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 −$262 -85%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $11 −$3 -26%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$65 -32%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $406 −$400 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $305 +$377 +124%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $371 −$44 -12%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $305 −$286 -94%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $304 +$262 +86%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $531 +$303 +57%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $304 +$262 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $102 −$70 -68%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $184 +$331 +180%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $830 −$101 -12%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $304 +$262 +86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $227 +$204 +90%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$347 +114%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $305 +$362 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 37¢ $102 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $330 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England w BUY 51¢ $355 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 68¢ $546 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $605 7h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea BUY 42¢ $254 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 41¢ $254 36h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 21¢ $91 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 38¢ $255 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $236 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $203 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on BUY 38¢ $255 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 57¢ $405 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 64¢ $355 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 37¢ $153 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $508 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $135 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $203 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $254 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $254 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $203 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $129 6d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $123 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $868.21 · official $813.76 · 1573 history records