Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf931…b819 other 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%22W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$4
politics 24% −$3
sports 24% −$5
crypto 10% $0
economics 6% −$1
world 4% +$1
culture 3% −$3
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 3 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 189 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses22 / 167
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage164d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $33 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $34 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $121 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $39 $0 +1%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $124 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $77 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $153 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $86 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $35 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 7h
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $32 8d
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $33 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 16d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 30d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 31d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $36 64d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $36 64d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $34 64d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $34 64d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $33 64d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $33 65d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $31 65d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $31 65d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $40 65d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 93¢ $40 65d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $38 65d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $38 65d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $37 65d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $37 66d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $41 66d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $41 66d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 66d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $41 66d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $44 66d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $44 66d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 66d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 95¢ $39 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 671 history records