Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf932…2694 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$37
sports 23% −$19
culture 8% −$11
politics 7% −$8
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage127d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $654 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $411 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $205 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $249 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $282 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $523 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $477 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $157 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $421 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $103 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $636 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $441 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $306 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 52m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 2h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 4h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 6h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 6h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 8h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 9h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $43 11h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 15h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 17h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 19h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 21h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 25h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 27h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 28h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 29h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 31h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 32h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $44 34h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $44 35h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 37h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 39h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 40h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 41h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $44 46h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $44 47h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1324 history records