Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F9 0xf935…bc1c other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$651 (-5%) realized −$1,519 · open +$868
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%47W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$4,975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$872
culture 14% −$48
crypto 2% −$25
sports 1% +$47
economics 1% −$42
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -54.9% -59.2% 0% 0% -59.2%
≤30d 1 -54.9% -59.2% 0% 0% -59.2%
≤90d 58 -7.3% -16.1% 43% 33% -15.2%
all 86 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 43% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -11.5%
10% -18.1% 27% -20.0%
15% -26.1% 15% -27.7%
20% -33.3% 12% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$4,975
Realized−$1,519
Unrealized+$868
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)86 / 92
History coverage100d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $1,843 $2,597 +$755 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $1,317 $1,563 +$246 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $376 $333 −$43 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $171 $102 −$70 (-41%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $92 −$51 -55%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $7 $0 -2%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Apr 09 $10 $0 -4%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 09 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Apr 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 04 $569 −$28 -5%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 04 $582 +$5 +1%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 03 $5 −$3 -60%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Apr 03 $134 −$42 -31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Brazil vs. Croatia end in a draw? Apr 01 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Mexico vs. Belgium end in a draw? Apr 01 $75 +$21 +28%
Will England win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will England vs. Japan end in a draw? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Apr 01 $70 −$40 -58%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $19 −$11 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $20 +$13 +63%
Will United States win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $21 +$5 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Netherlands vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Mar 31 $58 +$17 +29%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? Mar 31 $15 +$7 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $63 −$8 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Algeria vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Mar 31 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Algeria win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $13 +$5 +41%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $28 +$3 +12%
Will Honduras win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Panama win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$6 -61%
Will South Africa win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Gambia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-03-31? Mar 30 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-31? Mar 30 $20 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $198 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $198 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $279 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $282 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $272 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $289 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $109 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $109 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $170 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $170 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $82 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $77 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $616 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $775 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $513 25h
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $104 25h
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $637 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $221 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $221 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $137 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $90 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $349 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $349 28h
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $76 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $327 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $341 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $133 41h
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $91 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,974.75 · official $4,974.75 (match) · 467 history records