Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F9 0xf938…1249 sports 1105 markets active 2h ago coverage 676d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$569 (+1%) realized +$542 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%758W / 345L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$11
14 days−$126
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$202
other 9% +$248
politics 7% +$3
economics 6% −$5
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.4% -30.7% 63% 47% -8.0%
≤30d 72 -10.2% -18.8% 64% 54% -9.7%
≤90d 471 -4.9% -14.0% 71% 49% -8.9%
all 1103 -4.7% -13.8% 69% 50% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 50% -9.1%
10% -22.0% 34% -17.8%
15% -29.5% 21% -25.7%
20% -36.5% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$542
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses758 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1103 / 1105
History coverage676d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 78¢ 100¢ $95 $122 +$27 (+29%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $83 +$17 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $80 +$9 +11%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $85 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 +$3 +18%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $40 +$9 +23%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $20 +$9 +46%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $50 +$7 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$5 +45%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $46 +$12 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $366 +$50 +14%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $10 +$12 +117%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $420 +$72 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $55 +$7 +12%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 +$25 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $30 +$14 +46%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $51 −$3 -6%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Yellow Submarine (BO1) - The International Euro Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 +$5 +31%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2,956 +$113 +4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $308 −$21 -7%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $852 +$57 +7%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $678 +$156 +23%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $303 −$303 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $71 +$38 +53%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $23 +$5 +21%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $65 +$9 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 89¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 77¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 63¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $101 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $9 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $80 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $1 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $3 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $3 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 23h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 90¢ $80 29h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 73¢ $5 30h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $87 30h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 98¢ $85 30h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 91¢ $80 33h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 39h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 81¢ $30 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 80¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 68¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Team Spirit 88¢ $50 4d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 57¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 69¢ $12 5d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 53¢ $5 5d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 79¢ $21 5d
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $5 5d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY MOUZ 67¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.10 · official $127.10 (match) · 2917 history records