Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf938…1e00 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$87
7 days+$172
14 days+$28
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$37
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.0% +3.2% 69% 69% +7.1%
≤30d 21 +4.7% -5.3% 62% 62% -7.4%
≤90d 26 -4.6% -13.7% 58% 58% -9.5%
all 36 +5.4% -4.6% 61% 61% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 61% -7.9%
10% -13.8% 56% -16.7%
15% -22.1% 53% -24.8%
20% -29.7% 44% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$41 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage106d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $95 +$57 +60%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $103 +$93 +91%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $64 −$63 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $103 +$12 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $103 +$113 +109%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $61 +$15 +24%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 −$39 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $102 −$101 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $65 −$64 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $56 +$38 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$32 +64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $103 +$88 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $102 −$101 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$79 -78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$17 +86%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +86%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$2 +36%
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5 May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $34 −$33 -99%
Spurs vs. Warriors Apr 02 $30 +$4 +12%
LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifie Mar 28 $11 +$8 +70%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5 Mar 25 $5 +$5 +96%
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $10 +$7 +67%
Will CF América win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
São Paulo FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5 Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $10 +$8 +75%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $10 $0 -0%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $17 +$7 +39%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 16 $5 +$4 +89%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 10 $5 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $95 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $103 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $64 35h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $115 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $103 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $103 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $61 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $39 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $102 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $65 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $56 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $103 7d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $102 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $22 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 10d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 11d
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 17d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $5 17d
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 38d
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 69¢ $5 42d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 77¢ $34 82d
Spurs vs. Warriors BUY Spurs 89¢ $30 83d
LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifie BUY Oh My God 59¢ $11 87d
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 232.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 91d
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records