Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F9 0xf93d…ada0 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate76%22W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$15
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$9
other 10% +$27
world 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +2.7% -7.1% 78% 74% -8.5%
≤30d 28 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 75% -8.3%
≤90d 28 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 75% -8.3%
all 29 +0.1% -9.4% 76% 72% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 72% -11.5%
10% -18.1% 55% -19.9%
15% -26.0% 31% -27.7%
20% -33.2% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$42 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses22 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage109d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$26 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$31 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $290 +$12 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $220 +$71 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 +$3 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $20 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $141 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $110 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $290 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $200 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $96 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $20 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $15 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $10 7d
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth BUY James Duckworth 76¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.13 · official $109.13 (match) · 55 history records