Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf93e…f7bd crypto 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$881 (-36%) realized −$873 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$809
other 7% −$114
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 10 -41.8% -47.4% 20% 20% -70.8%
all 145 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 17% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 17% -45.4%
10% -52.1% 17% -50.6%
15% -56.8% 17% -55.4%
20% -61.0% 17% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -84% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$16 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$873
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 121
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage223d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $49 $42 −$7 (-15%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 30 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 30 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 30 $4 +$10 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 30 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 29 $32 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 29 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 29 $54 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 29 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 29 $46 +$19 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 17 $9 +$14 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Dec 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Dec 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Dec 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Dec 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Dec 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $37 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $24 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $32 146d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $14 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $54 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $31 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $25 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $46 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $50 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $20 146d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 146d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.30 · official $45.30 (match) · 308 history records