Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf93f…684a politics 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$11
other 38% −$7
economics 6% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,008) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage82d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $45 $0 -0%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 22 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Jun 22 $1,216 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $978 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $943 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 07 $176 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 03 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,283 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,228 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,321 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 2h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,298 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $941 2h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 2h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $319 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,262 2h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $49 23h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $1,233 23h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 23h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $1,194 23h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 23h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,225 23h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 23h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $17 24h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,189 24h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $857 24h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 24h
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $23 24h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $358 24h
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,216 24h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $79 42d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $79 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records