Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf93f…8d92 crypto 894 markets active 3h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,272 (-2%) realized −$1,272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%457W / 436L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,649
other 6% +$283
culture 0% +$64
sports 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -26.3% -33.3% 31% 31% -15.1%
≤30d 13 -26.3% -33.3% 31% 31% -15.1%
≤90d 13 -26.3% -33.3% 31% 31% -15.1%
all 893 -2.5% -11.8% 51% 51% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 51% -11.3%
10% -20.2% 51% -19.8%
15% -28.0% 50% -27.5%
20% -35.0% 49% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$72 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses457 / 436
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)893 / 894
History coverage181d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 893 Trades
no open positions (422 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $44 +$42 +96%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 +$90 +100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$28 -66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$29 +134%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$30 +145%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 29 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 29 $158 +$177 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 29 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 29 $110 −$40 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 29 $80 +$26 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 29 $185 +$140 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 29 $85 +$72 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 29 $85 +$72 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 29 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 29 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 29 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 29 $84 +$74 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Dec 29 $83 +$74 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 29 $83 +$74 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Dec 29 $83 +$74 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 29 $82 +$74 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 29 $77 +$75 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 29 $85 +$57 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 29 $82 +$76 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $14 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 27¢ $10 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $27 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 28h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $6 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 37¢ $38 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 92¢ $137 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 92¢ $30 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 92¢ $13 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $90 47h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 13¢ $14 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $41 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $40 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $21 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 100¢ $50 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 22¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $4 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $2 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $5 6d
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY No 13¢ $9 130d
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 131d
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 131d
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3225 history records