Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F9 0xf940…3239 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 384d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$2,110 (+14%) realized −$405 · open +$2,515
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%40W / 78L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$1,075
14 days+$1,254
30 days+$1,254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,767
other 20% +$4,084
finance 12% −$78
sports 3% −$104
tech 2% −$98
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +94.6% +76.0% 50% 50% +136.6%
≤30d 7 +85.2% +67.6% 57% 57% +79.2%
≤90d 9 +56.4% +41.5% 56% 56% +66.3%
all 118 +42.0% +28.4% 34% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.4% 33% -12.5%
10% +16.1% 30% -20.9%
15% +4.9% 28% -28.5%
20% -5.4% 25% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +43% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$83 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

384d coverage
Net worth$3,839
Realized−$405
Unrealized+$2,515
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses40 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)118 / 127
History coverage384d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Yes 8¢ 66¢ $298 $2,547 +$2,249 (+755%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 29 2026? No 69¢ 72¢ $500 $520 +$20 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 7¢ 34¢ $47 $233 +$186 (+398%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $144 $158 +$14 (+10%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $99 $113 +$14 (+14%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $99 $107 +$8 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 29 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $37 $31 −$6 (-16%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? Jun 28 $130 −$9 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $103 +$43 +42%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 25 $172 +$1,033 +599%
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? Jun 24 $115 −$44 -38%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $115 +$82 +71%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Jun 21 $613 +$179 +29%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 28 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Feb 17 $23 +$3 +11%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 11 $60 −$12 -20%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $19 +$208 +1065%
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 29 $45 +$50 +112%
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 19 $205 +$465 +227%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $83 +$102 +124%
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? Jan 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Brevis FDV above $100M one day after launch? Dec 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this we Dec 23 $20 −$20 -100%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 22 $1,111 −$83 -8%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? Dec 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $35 −$15 -42%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 17 $34 +$4 +12%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $33 +$23 +70%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $20 +$14 +71%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of December 20 Dec 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Warriors vs. Bulls Dec 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Nuggets vs. Hornets Dec 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bears vs. Packers Dec 07 $25 +$65 +260%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Dec 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Kings vs. Heat Dec 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bucks vs. Pistons Dec 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Thunder Dec 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Hawks Dec 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Celtics Dec 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Warriors vs. 76ers Dec 05 $15 +$145 +967%
Nets vs. Bulls Dec 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Hawks Dec 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Magic Dec 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $161 −$161 -100%
Spread: Ravens (-7.5) Nov 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5) Nov 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Nov 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $38 0m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 29 2026? BUY No 69¢ $506 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $101 3h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 21h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $118 23h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 31h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 31h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 32h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 34h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 34h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 42¢ $84 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 2d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? SELL Yes 81¢ $790 3d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? SELL Yes 81¢ $415 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $52 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $71 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 68¢ $103 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 22¢ $31 5d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? SELL No 99¢ $63 8d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,839.49 · official $3,810.74 (match) · 890 history records